Climate Characteristics
The climate of Serbia can be described as moderately continental with distinct seasons. Summers are warm, with July being the hottest month, particularly in the mountains where average temperatures are between 13°C and 17°C.
Winters are cold, with January as the coldest month. Most areas experience snow cover from November to March. Winds vary by season, with northwest and west winds prevailing in warmer months and colder months characterized by eastern and southeastern winds known as Košava. Sunshine duration ranges from 1800 to 2100 hours annually.
Average January air temperatures in Serbia in the period 1961-2010
Average July air temperatures in Serbia in the period 1961-2010
Average annual air temperatures in Serbia in the period 1961-2010
According to official data, nine of the ten hottest years in Serbia were recorded after 2000. The upward trend in average temperatures in Serbia is three times higher than the global average, making Serbia more affected by climate change in terms of temperature rise. Additionally, the number of dry days and years is steadily increasing.
In the 1998-2017 period, the average annual temperature in Serbia was 0.5 to 1.5°C higher than in the 1961-1990 period. This upward trend is more pronounced in the 2008-2017 period, with an average annual temperature 1.5°C higher than in 1961-1990 in most of the territory.
Changes in temperature are leading to more frequent and severe heatwaves and extreme events, especially in the lowlands, particularly in central and southern Serbia. The number of extreme heatwaves has increased significantly, occurring annually or even multiple times per year.
Rainfall patterns have also changed, with a noticeable drop in accumulated rainfall during the summer season. The number of heavy precipitation days is on the rise, particularly during the 2008-2017 period. Climate indices indicate a significant increase, exacerbating negative consequences for society and the economy.
Spatial distribution of the February amounts of precipitation in Serbia in the period 1961-2010
Spatial distribution of the June amounts of precipitation in Serbia in the period 1961-2010
Average annual amounts of precipitation in Serbia in the period 1961-2010
Climate Change Scenarios
Serbia has been monitoring climate changes for over a decade, assessing both observed and projected changes by the end of the 21st century based on various greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHG). Two key scenarios analyzed are SRES A1B and A2, representing medium and extreme emissions scenarios, respectively. These scenarios help plan for climate change adaptations.
New analyses for Serbia’s Third National Communication consider the latest scenarios – RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 – from the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. These scenarios predict temperature increases, with RCP8.5 indicating a potential 4.3°C increase by the end of the century compared to the 1986-2005 reference period.
Deviation of the average annual temperature (°C) for the period 2046-2065 (left panel) and for the period 2081-2100 (middle panel) in relation to the values for the reference period 1986-2005; deviation of the average maximum temperature (°C) obtained for the period June-August 2081-2100 in relation to the average values of the maximum temperature of this period for 1986-2005 (right panel); the results obtained under the RCP4.5 scenario are shown in the upper panels, and the results obtained under the RCP8.5 are shown in the lower panels.
Temperature changes vary across seasons, with more significant warming during the second half of the century. Maximum temperatures increase more than minimum temperatures. Spatial analysis shows that warming intensifies from north to south.
Future precipitation changes are less predictable, with a decline expected in the second half of the 21st century, especially in central and southern Serbia. Heavy precipitation events are on the rise.
Deviation of the average annual rainfall (%) for the period 2046-2065 (left panel) and for the period 2081-2100 (middle panel) in relation to the values for the reference period 1986-2005; deviation of the average amount of precipitation (%) for the season June-August for the period 2081-2100 in relation to the average seasonal value for the period 1986-2005 (right panel); the results obtained under the RCP4.5 scenario are shown in the upper panels, and the results obtained under the RCP8.5 are shown in the lower panels
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
Serbia has been a member of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) since 2001 and the Paris Agreement since 2017. In 2015, Serbia submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC), committing to a 9.8% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels.
The updated NDC aims for a more ambitious 13.2% reduction compared to 2010 levels (or 33.3% compared to 1990) by 2030. This commitment reflects the substantial material damages caused by climate change and extreme weather events in Serbia.
Forestry plays a pivotal role in these mitigation efforts, including afforestation, reforestation, sustainable forest management, and climate-smart forestry practices. The mitigation potential of afforestation is estimated at 25.9 Mt CO2 eq/yr, while sustainable forest management contributes an additional 1.008 Mt CO2 eq by 2030.
These measures align with Serbia’s climate goals and international commitments under the Paris Agreement, highlighting the country’s dedication to addressing climate change.