Climate characteristics
Montenegro is located in the central part of the temperate warm zone of the northern hemisphere. Due to its geographical position and proximity to the Adriatic and Mediterranean seas, Montenegro has a Mediterranean climate with warm and somewhat dry summers and mild and fairly humid winters.
Weather conditions and climate in Montenegro are significantly influenced by various weather systems and phenomena, including the Genoa cyclone, Adriatic cyclone, Icelandic depression, Black Sea depression, Azores anticyclone, Siberian anticyclone, Central European anticyclone, cold frontal system from the north-Arctic cold front, and warm – tropical front from the south.
Additionally, large bodies of water, elevation, the orientation of coastal mountains, and the terrain also impact its local and regional climate, creating significant differences between the coastal and high mountainous regions.
The prevailing climate types in Montenegro are:
- Marine;
- Continental;
- Mountainous.
Large bodies of water, elevation, and the direction of coastal mountains locally and regionally influence the climate, creating significant differences between the coastal and high mountainous regions, with numerous transitional forms of local climate.
The average annual air temperature ranges from 4.6°C in the Žabljak region at an altitude of 1,450 meters to 15.8°C on the coast. The average annual precipitation varies from 800 mm in the far north to around 5,000 mm in the far southwest.
Throughout the year, there are an average of 115 to 130 days with precipitation, while in the northern regions of Montenegro, this number is 172. The rainiest month on the coast is November, and the driest is July. A snow cover forms at elevations above 400 meters, with depths exceeding 50 cm on average for 10 days (in Kolašin) to 76 days (in Žabljak). In mountainous areas, snowfall is much more common in spring than in autumn.
Climate change
Montenegro joined the UNFCCC Convention as a non-Annex I member in October 2006, acceded to the Kyoto Protocol on June 27, 2007, and ratified the Paris Agreement on December 20, 2017. It submitted its INDC in December 2017 and revised its National Determined Contributions (NDC) in June 2021. Montenegro has submitted three BURs to the UNFCCC in 2010, 2015, and 2020, with the fourth BUR planned for 2025.
Climate change scenarios
Temperature changes:
By 2040, mean annual temperatures are projected to rise by 1.5 to 2°C countrywide. Winter (DJF) temperatures will increase by 2 to 2.5°C, and summer (JJA) temperatures by about 2°C. From 2041 to 2070, annual temperatures will deviate by 2.5 to 3°C, with similar warming in winter and summer but more pronounced in the north during winter and the south during summer. In the period 2071-2100, mean annual temperatures may increase by around 5.5°C for most of the country. Winter temperature increases could exceed 6°C in northern mountainous areas, and summer increases might surpass 6°C in the southern coastal regions at lower altitudes. These rising winter temperatures are expected to lead to reduced snow accumulation and fewer snowfall days in Montenegro.
Change (°C) in mean winter (DJF), summer (JJA), and annual (ANN) temperatures for the periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100 compared to the period 1971–2000, according to the RCP8.5 climate change scenario.
Precipitation changes:
- From 2011-2040, there may be up to +5% more precipitation in the north and up to -5% less in the south. In the DJF season, there might be up to +5% more precipitation, with stronger changes in the north. During JJA, there could be slightly less precipitation, especially in the southeast.
- From 2041-2070, expect a countrywide decrease in mean annual precipitation, up to -20%. Winter changes resemble the previous period, while summers may see up to -45% less precipitation.
- From 2071-2100, anticipate a mean annual precipitation decrease of up to -20% countrywide. Winter precipitation may increase by around +20%, while summer precipitation could significantly drop by up to -45%.
Change (%) in mean winter (DJF), summer (JJA), and annual (ANN) accumulated precipitation for the periods 2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100 compared to the period 1971–2000, according to the RCP8.5 climate change scenario.
Snowfall Changes: Climate projections indicate a reduction in snowfall in the following periods:
- From 2011-2040, annual snowfall deviations range from -30% in the north to -80% in the central areas. The number of snowy days is also expected to decrease by -30% to -80%.
- From 2041-2070, snowfall changes vary from -50% in the north to over -90% in central areas, with a similar reduction in the number of snowy days.
- In the period 2071-2100, most of the country, except the far north, can expect snowfall changes exceeding -90% and the number of snowy days is predicted to decrease by over -70%.
Summer and Tropical Days: Over the 2011-2040 period, there’s an expected increase of up to 100% in summer and tropical days throughout the country compared to the reference period of 1971-2000. The number of tropical nights may rise by around 50%, with a potential 100% increase in the southeast.
Heatwaves and Frost: From 2041-2070, more pronounced changes in the number of summer and tropical days are anticipated in the northern mountainous part, with up to 200% more summer days and up to 500% more tropical days compared to the reference period. The number of tropical nights may increase by about 50% in the north and up to 200% in the southeast.
Heavy Rainfall Days: The frequency of days with heavy rainfall exceeding 20mm may increase in the far north, with maximum values exceeding 80% in all three future periods, in almost all seasons and annually. However, during 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, changes during summer months are negative throughout the territory, with a maximum value of -80%. Conversely, in the winter season during 2071-2100, there’s a positive change for most of the territory, with a maximum of +20%.
Episodes of Heavy Rainfall: The average annual number of episodes with five-day accumulations exceeding 60mm is expected to increase in northern Montenegro during all three future periods, with local peaks up to 40% higher than the reference period. In the rest of the country, this change is negative, with a maximum of about -40% for the period 2071-2100. However, the average change in accumulation per episode of heavy rainfall over 60mm will be positive for most of the country, with a maximum of 20% during the 2071-2100 period, primarily in coastal areas.
Consecutive Rain-Free Days: Expect a decrease of about -5% in the average number of consecutive rain-free days during 2011-2040 in the north, both in summer and annually. However, from 2041-2070 and 2071-2100, there will be an increase in the number of consecutive rain-free days across Montenegro, especially during the summer season, ranging from 30% to over 70%. This suggests an intensification of droughts in the future.
Forest Ecosystem Threats: Forest ecosystems in Montenegro face threats such as fires, abiotic factors (droughts, floods, frost, snow, strong winds, etc.), pests, and diseases. Although fires currently affect about 0.5% of the total forest area annually, they could become a serious threat in the future, particularly in the southern forest regions along the coast and karst terrain. Forests have also become more vulnerable to climate change, air pollution, fires, parasitic fungi, insects, and, to a lesser extent, rodents and parasitic flowering plants.
Climate Change Impact on Tree Species: The most important tree species in Montenegro, including spruce, fir, and white pine, are expected to face adverse effects and may contract in distribution, especially in the eastern part of the country and to some extent in the northwest. Beech, based on projections, will maintain most of its current range, with exceptions in some bordering habitats along the coast and in Polimlje.
National Contributions (NDCs): Montenegro ratified the Paris Agreement and pledged to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 30% by 2030 compared to the 1990 baseline. It also committed to reducing total emissions to 3,667 kt CO2eq or less. Montenegro continues to fulfill its international obligations through its Third National Communication, which includes updated greenhouse gas inventories for 2016 and 2017 and recalculations from 1990, along with an overview of measures taken to plan emission reductions.