Climate Characteristics
North Macedonia’s climate exhibits considerable variation depending on its geographical location. Summer temperatures range from 20.6°C to 24.3°C, while winter temperatures vary from 0.9°C to 4.9°C. However, extreme temperatures can reach highs of over 45°C in summer and lows of -30°C in winter. The western part of the country receives more precipitation, with an average annual rainfall of 733 mm, ranging from 400 mm to over 1,000 mm. North Macedonia is divided into eight distinct climate zones based on factors such as altitude, valleys, lakes, and regional weather patterns.
Climate Zones
North Macedonia’s diverse climate zones are as follows:
- Sub-Mediterranean: Elevations between 50 and 500 meters, mild winters, and hot summers with dry summers and wet winters.
- Moderate-Continental-sub-Mediterranean: Covers up to 600 meters with slightly cooler temperatures and dry summers, and more rainfall in winter.
- Warm Continental: Located between 600 and 900 meters with hot summers, cold winters, and moderate rainfall.
- Cold Continental: Elevation between 900 and 1,100 meters, characterized by cold winters, mild summers, and moderate to high precipitation.
- Sub-Forest-Continental-Mountainous: Elevations between 1,100 and 1,300 meters with mild summers, cold winters, and high precipitation, mainly in the form of snow.
- Forest-Continental-Mountainous: Situated between 1,300 and 1,650 meters with cold, snowy winters, cool summers, and high precipitation.
- Sub-Alpine-Mountainous: Covers elevations from 1,650 to 2,250 meters with harsh alpine climate, snowy winters, and cool summers.
- Alpine-Mountainous: Located above 2,250 meters with very cold, snowy winters, and short, cool summers.
The boundaries between these climate zones are not fixed and depend on factors like altitude, topography, and regional weather patterns. The Vardar valley region in the central part of the country experiences a strong Mediterranean influence with hot, dry summers and mild, wet winters. Moving southeast, west, and north leads to a more continental climate with hot summers and cold winters, occasionally accompanied by snowfall.
Temperature and Precipitation
Winter in North Macedonia is generally cold, with temperatures varying by altitude. January averages slightly above 0°C at lower altitudes, but temperatures can drop to as low as -20°C during cold outbreaks. Summers are hot in lower valley areas, with average maximum temperatures of around 29°C. However, there is a wide temperature range, with occasional peaks exceeding 40°C. Summers are generally dry, with infrequent rainfall in the form of afternoon thunderstorms.
Map of Maximum (left) and Minimum (right) annual Mean temperature in North Macedonia (Source: Ivan Mincev)
Minimum, Mean and Maximum Average Temperature by each month in Republic of North Macedonia
Precipitation varies across the country, with valleys receiving around 650 mm annually, becoming more abundant with increasing altitude. Spring and autumn are the rainiest seasons, while winter and summer are relatively dry. Winter typically sees occasional snowfall at higher altitudes, while summer experiences stable and dry weather due to high-pressure systems over the Balkan region.
Aridity Zones
Aridity zones in North Macedonia are classified based on the aridity index, which considers the ratio between annual precipitation and reference evapotranspiration. These zones are essential for the management of natural resources, including water, forests, grazing lands, and agriculture.
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)
In the context of climate change and National Determined Contributions (NDCs), the state of the atmosphere, particularly weather and climate, plays a critical role in various sectors such as agriculture, transportation, energy, and tourism. Extensive climate forecasting is conducted to efficiently adapt to climate change, mitigate potential consequences, and optimize natural resource utilization. This analysis focuses on the 3rd and 4th National Communications on Climate Change (TNC and FNC) and NDC reports for the Republic of North Macedonia.
The Republic of North Macedonia’s NDC aims to achieve a 51% reduction in GHG emissions by 2030 compared to 1990 levels. It focuses on the energy sector’s transition to cleaner sources and sets targets for other sectors like agriculture, waste, and land use. The NDC emphasizes the importance of international cooperation and collective efforts in combating climate change.
Key Climate Change Impacts on North Macedonia:
Projections indicate that North Macedonia will face increased risks and extreme events, including forest fires, river floods, droughts, biodiversity loss, and threats to human health and the economy, especially in sectors like energy, forestry, agriculture, and tourism. The southern part of the country will experience higher temperatures and reduced water access, while the northwestern coastal areas will face rising river levels. Reduced snow cover in mountain regions will impact winter tourism and lead to species extinction. Permafrost degradation may also endanger infrastructure.
The forestry sector will encounter higher tree mortality, insect and fungi infestations, an increase in heavy rain days, and more forest fires. Forest fire trends show shorter periods between severe fires and an extension of the fire season. These challenges were evident in the devastating wildfires of the summer of 2021, leading to a state of crisis declaration.
Forests play a significant role as greenhouse gas sinks in North Macedonia. The stability of these sinks is affected by severe wildfires. The emissions of CO2 in the forestry sector primarily come from firewood and forest fires, with households using firewood for heating being a constant source of emissions.
Climate Change Scenarios for North Macedonia:
Climate change scenarios and projections are essential for understanding potential climate impacts. Projections indicate increasing temperatures, with the highest warming in the summer season. Precipitation changes are more uncertain, but models suggest reduced rainfall in summer and increased rainfall in winter and spring. Extreme events like droughts, forest fires, and heavy precipitation are expected to become more frequent.