As of the 2013 census, the Republic of Srpska (excluding the Brčko District) had a total population of 1,228,423, with a population density of 49.9 inhabitants per square kilometer. This region covers 49% of the land area of Bosnia and Herzegovina and is home to 34.79% of the country’s total population. In 2019, the overall life expectancy at birth was 77.15 years, while the total fertility rate stood at a remarkably low 1.34 children per mother.
Population Trends
Over the past three decades, the Republic of Srpska has experienced depopulation, with the population decreasing from an estimated 1.428 million in 2000 to approximately 1.2 million in the 2013 census. By 2018, the population estimate dropped further to 1.147 million. This trend is characterized by significant migration within the region, with urban centers such as Banja Luka, Bijeljina, and Doboj attracting a substantial population influx, leading to urbanization. Conversely, rural areas have seen population declines due to migration, both within the region and abroad.
Administrative Division
The Republic of Srpska is divided into municipalities, further categorized into urban and rural areas. Unlike the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Republic of Srpska follows a unitary entity structure, with no intermediate government entities like cantons, counties, districts, or regions. This uniformity implies that all municipalities possess the same competencies and powers, regardless of their size or development level. Currently, the Republic of Srpska consists of 58 municipalities and seven cities.
Spatial Distribution of Population
Population density in the Republic of Srpska is influenced by natural, geographical, and socio-economic factors. The distribution of the population exhibits significant regional disparities and unevenness. The spatial demography reflects two distinct cycles of population movements and redistribution in Bosnia and Herzegovina, resulting in the depopulation of rural areas. The first cycle, driven by industrial development from 1960 to 1980, accelerated urban growth but led to rural decline. The second cycle, influenced by ethnic factors and the war in the late 20th century, saw forced migrations into urban areas, further depopulating rural regions.
According to the 2013 census, the share of the urban population is 43% and 57% rural population. A pronounced trend of population declines and decreasing population density has emerged in rural and mountainous areas. This demographic shift has persisted since then, varying in intensity. Notably, this transition from an agrarian to an industrial society occurred in slightly over a decade, marking a significant transformation.
Urban/rural population in Repubika Srpska. (Source: Census 2013.)
Population density by municipalities of Republic of Srpska. Source: Institute for urbanism of Republika Srpska
Population Dynamics
Bosnia and Herzegovina has traditionally experienced emigration, with negative migration balances throughout the latter half of the 20th century. The 1960s witnessed significant emigration to Serbia and Croatia. However, the most dramatic outflow occurred during the war in the 1990s, with refugees primarily seeking refuge in urban centers. The 1991-2013 period is marked by complexities in migration statistics, with the census not being the optimal source for monitoring external migrations.
According to the World Bank, in 2005, 1.471 million citizens of Bosnia and Herzegovina lived abroad (38% of the total population), making it the second highest in the world. By 2013, this number had risen to 1.699 million (44.5% of the total population). The primary destination countries for emigrants include Croatia, Serbia, Germany, Austria, the USA, Slovenia, Sweden, Switzerland, Australia, and Canada.
The population dynamics in the Republic of Srpska are influenced by historical, social, and economic factors, leading to complex regional development and spatial disparities.
Future Demographic Trends
Population decline in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) is projected to continue due to the long-term effects of war. The demographic analysis of the Republic of Srpska highlights a significant population decline in recent years. This decline has led to the expansion of uncultivated land, which, unfortunately, has become prone to overgrowth. This overgrowth not only poses ecological challenges but also increases the risk of wildfires. The relationship between declining population and unchecked vegetation growth underscores the need for proactive land management and wildfire prevention measures. Addressing this issue necessitates a strategic approach to land use and wildfire mitigation efforts that account for demographic considerations. Recognizing the interplay between demographic shifts and landscape dynamics is essential for developing comprehensive solutions that ensure the harmonious coexistence of communities and the environment. Ultimately, an integrated approach to fire management that incorporates demographic factors is crucial. Understanding the connection between population, land management, and fire risk enables more effective preparedness, quicker responses, and better community protection from wildfires.
Projected number of inhabitants in Republic of Srpska according to different assumptions of fertility trends. Source: Proposal to amend the Spatial plan of the Republic of Srpska until 2025