Climate significantly influences wildfire occurrence, with increased risk during hot, dry summer months. Republic of Srpska’s climate is influenced by geographical factors, geological features, and meteorological conditions. It experiences three climate types: Northern Peri-Pannonian, Alpine and Pannonian, and Modified Mediterranean-Adriatic.
- Northern Peri-Pannonian Region: Moderate continental climate with cold winters and warm summers. Annual temperature ranges from 12°C to 19°C. Precipitation ranges from 750 to 1,050 l/m². Winters are cold with snowfall.
- Alpine and Pannonian Climate: Predominates in most of Republic of Srpska, characterized by short, cool summers and cold winters with heavy snowfall. Annual temperature is 5°C to 7°C. Precipitation exceeds 1,200 l/m².
- Modified Adriatic Climate: Found in southern regions, characterized by warm summers and mild winters. Annual temperatures range from 14°C to 14.7°C. Precipitation varies but can be substantial, particularly in the far south.
Mean annual temperature in Republic of Srpska for the period (1961-1990) (Source: Threat assessment of the Republic of Srpska from natural disasters and other accidents, CZRS 2013.)
Average annual precipitation in Republic Srpska for the period (1961-1990) (Source: Threat assessment of the Republic of Srpska from natural disasters and other accidents, CZRS 2013.)
Drought: Drought is becoming more frequent in Republic of Srpska, affecting agriculture, water resources, and the environment. It’s mainly due to changes in precipitation patterns and increased temperatures.
Climate Change Scenarios: Climate models predict rising temperatures, increased summer heat, and altered precipitation patterns. Mean temperatures could rise by 0.6°C to 1.4°C by 2030, with the most significant increases in summer. Precipitation is expected to increase in spring and summer but decrease overall. These changes increase the risk of droughts and wildfires.
The projection of climate changes for the period 2001-2030 compared to the base period of 1961-1990 in the Republic of Srpska. The changes are focused on temperature and precipitation and are presented visually in maps.
Temperature Changes:
- The mean seasonal temperatures during 2001-2030 are expected to increase.
- In the winter season (DJF), temperatures are projected to rise by approximately +0.7°C.
- During the spring season (MAM), the temperature changes are slightly higher, ranging from +0.8°C to +0.9°C.
- The most significant temperature changes occur in the summer season (JJA), with values of +1.4°C in the north and +1.1°C in the southern parts.
- In the autumn season (SON), temperatures are expected to change from +0.6°C to +0.8°C.
Change in temperature in °C and precipitation in % for the winter season. (Temperature change in °C (left) and precipitation % (right) for the winter season -DJF (above) and the spring season – MAM (below)
Precipitation Changes:
- The projections indicate both positive and negative changes in precipitation.
- Positive changes, indicating increased precipitation, are anticipated for:
- The spring season (MAM), primarily in the northern and northeastern parts, with an increase of +5%.
- The summer season (JJA) across most of the territory, except for the southeast, with a maximum increase of 15%.
- On an annual level, the expected temperature change ranges from 0.8°C to 1.0°C, with higher values in the northern regions.
- Precipitation change at the annual level is negative across the entire territory, with reductions from 0% to -10%. An exception is the northeast, where a positive change of up to +5% is projected.
Change in temperature in °C (left) and precipitation in % for the JJA and SON seasons (Change in temperature in °C (left) and precipitation in % (right) for the JJA season (top) and the SON season (bottom)
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs): BiH has adopted its Updated NDCs and is committed to climate adaptation and mitigation. The Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Relations is responsible for coordinating these efforts. The country aims to establish a green economy by 2025 to support its EU membership goals, facing challenges in developing and implementing strategies to address climate change.
In summary, Republic of Srpska’s climate is diverse, but it faces increasing challenges from rising temperatures and changing precipitation patterns, leading to heightened wildfire risks. The country is working on climate adaptation and mitigation strategies as part of its commitment to international agreements.
